Tropical Storm Elsa update (7 July)

07 Jul 2021 / Tampa, United States

Tropical Storm Elsa strengthened to hurricane force again but was downgraded just before she was about to make landfall around Tampa. The Port of Tampa is closed.

Fluctuations in intensity will be possible before Elsa makes landfall due to warm sea-surface temperatures being offset by moderate westerly wind shear and pockets of dry air in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Weakening is expected once Elsa makes landfall over northern Florida, followed by additional land interaction with Georgia and the Carolinas during the next couple of days.

The system is currently forecast to remain at tropical storm strength as it tracks across the East Coast states Wednesday and Thursday. Elsa may regain some strength late Thursday into Friday as it pushes off the U.S. East Coast into the western Atlantic, but this will be short-lived as it is forecast to transition to an extratropical cyclone on Saturday, if not sooner.

Elsa is forecast to track across the Mid-Atlantic states before re-emerging off the coast of North Carolina or Virginia into the Atlantic late Thursday or early Friday. The system should then continue racing to the northeast towards Nova Scotia and Newfoundland Friday into Saturday while becoming extratropical.

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