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13 Sep 2018 / North & South Carolina, United States

Hurricane Florence update (13 September)

At 800am EDT (1200 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane Florence was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA Doppler weather radars to be near latitude 33.1 North, longitude 75.1 West. Florence is moving slower toward the northwest at about 12mph (20 km/h).

This general motion, accompanied by a further decrease in forward speed, is expected to continue through today. A turn to the west-northwest and west at an even slower forward speed is expected tonight and Friday, and a slow west-southwestward motion is forecast Friday night and Saturday.

On the forecast track, the center of Florence will approach the coasts of North and South Carolina later today, then move near or over the coast of southern North Carolina and eastern South Carolina in the hurricane warning area tonight and Friday. A slow motion over eastern South Carolina is forecast Friday night through Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before the center reaches the coast, with weakening expected after the center moves inland.

Florence is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km)…

STORM SURGE:
The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high tide:
- Cape Fear NC to Cape Lookout NC, including the Neuse, Pamlico, Pungo, and Bay Rivers: 9-13ft
- North Myrtle Beach SC to Cape Fear NC: 6-9ft
- Cape Lookout NC to Ocracoke Inlet NC: 6-9ft
- South Santee River SC to North Myrtle Beach SC: 4-6ft
- Ocracoke Inlet NC to Salvo NC: 4-6ft
- Salvo NC to North Carolina/Virginia Border: 2-4ft
- Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC: 2-4ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances…

RAINFALL:
Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive rainfall in the following areas:
- Coastal North Carolina into far northeastern South Carolina: 20-30 inches, isolated 40 inches. This rainfall would produce catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged significant river flooding.
- Rest of South and North Carolina into southwest Virginia: 6-12 inches, isolated 24 inches.

WIND:
Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the hurricane warning area this evening or early Friday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength by later this morning or early this afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be nearing completion.

TORNADOES:
A few tornadoes are possible in eastern North Carolina through Friday.

SURF:
Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

(For information about operations in the United States, contact GAC North America at [email protected])

Source: National Hurricane Center, Miami FL, Hurricane Florence Intermediate Advisory No.56A issued at 800am EDT on Thursday September 13, 2018

If quoting any content from Hot Port News, please cite GAC Hot Port News as the source.

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