31 Jul 2015 / United States, New Orleans
Disturbance 19 is located near 10.7N, 55.0W and is moving to the west near 10 mph. A general motion to the west to west-northwest is expected over the next several days. The system should cross over the Windward and Leeward Islands by Friday, bringing occasionally heavy squalls to the islands. There is a 20 percent chance that this system could be a tropical depression or weak tropical storm by the time it crosses over the islands. As the system heads into the eastern Caribbean over the weekend, it will initially encounter less favorable conditions for development. However, by Monday or Tuesday the system should be between the western Caribbean and the Bahamas where conditions will be conducive for strengthening. By Tuesday or Wednesday, the system may head into the Gulf or toward the southeast US coastline. Due to very warm waters and expected favorable atmospheric conditions, we cannot rule out a hurricane threat to the Gulf or southeast US in 6 to 9 days. Disturbance 21 is along 23W and is drifting to the west. It has a 5 percent chance of development over the next 7 days. Disturbance 20 is merging into 19. Disturbanc 17 has moved into Mexico and is no longer a part of our analysis. In the long range, a trough of low pressure may be located off the southeast coast of the United States or near northern Florida in about 5 to 8 days. There may be about a 5 percent chance of a weak tropical cyclone forming in that region around that time, but confidence is very low at this time. Source: Louisiana Maritime Association
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