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31 Jul 2015

Hurricane Condition Report

Disturbance 19 is along 43W and is moving west at 9 mph. Disturbance 20 is along 31.5W and is moving west at 20 mph. Disturbance 21 is a tropical wave along 11W over West Africa. It is expected to emerge off the African coast in about 24 hours as it moves westward at about 16 mph. There is a 25-30 percent chance that one of these disturbances develops within the yellow shaded region within the next 5 days. Model guidance has been back and forth on which disturbance is the one that could develop. It is possible that Disturbances 19 and 20 could merge into a single disturbance over the next day or two. Due to the large model spread in location and timing of potential formation, there is a large spread in potential track if a tropical cyclone were to form. There is a slight chance that a strong disturbance or weak tropical storm could reach the northeastern Caribbean as early as Friday or Saturday. In 8 to 10 days, this potential system could be located anywhere from the Gulf of Mexico to the north-central Atlantic. All of the models that indicate a chance of development keep it at tropical storm strength and do not indicate a hurricane. Disturbance 17 is along 81W and is moving to the west at 24 mph. Development is not expected. In the long range, a trough of low pressure may be located off the southeast coast of the United States or near northern Florida in about 7 to 10 days. There may be about a 5 percent chance of a weak tropical cyclone forming in that region around that time, but confidence is very low at this time. For further information, contact GAC at [email protected]. Source: Louisiana Maritime Association

If quoting any content from Hot Port News, please cite GAC Hot Port News as the source.

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