12 Sep 2018 / Southeast Coast, Carolinas & Mid-Atlantic States, United States
At 800am EDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Florence was located near latitude 29.4 North, longitude 70.7 West. Florence is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue this morning. A motion toward the northwest is forecast to begin by this afternoon and continue through Thursday.
Florence is expected to slow down considerably by late Thursday into Friday, and move slowly through early Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Florence will move over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Bahamas today, and approach the coast of North Carolina or South Carolina in the hurricane warning area on Thursday and Friday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Florence is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Strengthening is forecast through tonight.
While some weakening is expected on Thursday, Florence is forecast to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it nears the U.S. coast... …Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)…
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high tide:
- Cape Fear to Cape Lookout, including the Neuse, Pamlico, Pungo, and Bay Rivers: 9-13ft
- North Myrtle Beach to Cape Fear: 6-9ft
- Cape Lookout to Ocracoke Inlet: 6-9ft
- South Santee River to North Myrtle Beach: 4-6ft
- Ocracoke Inlet to North Carolina/Virginia Border: 4-6ft
- Edisto Beach to South Santee River: 2-4ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances...
RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive rainfall in the following areas:
- Coastal North Carolina: 20-30 inches, isolated 40 inches
- South Carolina, western & northern North Carolina: 5-10 inches, isolated 20 inches
- Elsewhere in the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic states: 3-6 inches, isolated 12 inches
This rainfall would produce catastrophic flash flooding and significant river flooding.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the hurricane warning area on Friday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength on Thursday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East Coast. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions...
(For information about operations in the United States contact GAC North America at [email protected])
Source: National Hurricane Center, Miami FL, Hurricane Florence Intermediate Advisory No.52A issued at 800am EDT on Wed September 12, 2018
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