30 Aug 2019 / Bahamas
The government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Watch for the northwestern Bahamas. Interests in southern and central Florida should monitor the progress of Dorian.
At 500am AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 69.1 West. Dorian is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through the day. A slower west-northwestward to westward motion is forecast to begin tonight and continue through the weekend. On this track, Dorian should move over the Atlantic well east of the southeastern and central Bahamas today, approach the northwestern Bahamas Saturday, and move near or over portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Dorian is expected to become a major hurricane later today. Dorian is likely to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane while it moves near the northwestern Bahamas and approaches the Florida peninsula through the weekend.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km).
Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Saturday night or Sunday morning.
A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations this weekend into the middle of next week:
- Northwestern Bahamas and coastal sections of the Southeast United States: 6-12 inches, isolated 15 inches
- Central Bahamas: 1-2 inches, isolated 4 inches.
This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.
Swells are likely to begin affecting the east-facing shores of the Bahamas and the southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
(For information about operations in the Americas, contact the GAC Houston Hub Agency Center at [email protected])
Source: Extracts from National Hurricane Center, Miami FL, Hurricane Dorian Advisory No.24 issued at 500am AST on 30 August 2019
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