03 Sep 2019 / Bahamas
At 500am EDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 26.9 North, longitude 78.4 West.
Dorian is stationary just north of Grand Bahama Island. A slow north-northwestward motion is expected to begin this morning. A turn to the north is forecast by Wednesday evening, followed by a turn to the north-northeast Thursday morning. On this track, the core of extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian will continue to pound Grand Bahama Island today.
The hurricane will then move dangerously close to the Florida east coast late today through Wednesday evening, very near the Georgia and South Carolina coasts Wednesday night and Thursday, and near or over the North Carolina coast late Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next couple of days.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). A wind gust to 61 mph (98 km/h) was recently reported at Juno Beach Pier, Florida.
WIND:
Devastating hurricane conditions continue on Grand Bahama Island.
Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area in Florida by this evening. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area beginning Wednesday.
In South Florida, tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area through today, and are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area through this morning. Along the coast of northeastern Florida and Georgia, tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area on Wednesday.
STORM SURGE:
A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds on Grand Bahama Island. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Water levels should very slowly subside on the Abaco Islands today.
The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide:
- Lantana FL to South Santee River SC: 4-7ft
- North of Deerfield Beach FL to Lantana FL: 2-4ft
Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over short distances.
RAINFALL:
Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Friday:
- Northwestern Bahamas: Additional 3-6 inches, isolated storm totals over 30 inches.
- Coastal Carolinas: 5-10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
- Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula north of West Palm Beach through Georgia: 3-6 inches, isolated 9 inches.
- Southeast Virginia: 2-4 inches, isolated 6 inches.
This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.
SURF:
Large swells are affecting the northwestern Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and the coast of Georgia. These swells are expected to spread northward along much of the remainder of the southeastern United States coast during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
TORNADOES:
A tornado or two is possible near the immediate east coast of Florida through tonight. This risk will shift to immediate coastal Georgia and the coastal Carolinas on Wednesday into Thursday.
(For information about operations in the Americas, contact the GAC Houston Hub Agency Center at [email protected])
Source: Extracts from National Hurricane Center, Miami FL, Hurricane Dorian Advisory No.40 issued at 500am EDT on 3 September 2019
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