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31 Jul 2015

Disturbances and areas to watch

Disturbance 17 is located along 49W, and is moving west near 1 kts (16 mph). It remains poorly organized but cold improve some as it approaches the Lesser Antilles tomorrow and early Saturday. However, once in the eastern Caribbean Sea it will encounter somewhat hostile conditions. There is a slight chance it could eventually move to near the Florida Peninsula, either in the eastern Gulf of Mexico or near the Bahamas. If it survives long enough to the reach Florida region, it will be a very weak disturbance with little to no chance of development. No computer model is currently predicting development and we think overall development chances are less than 5 percent. Disturbance 19 is located near 11N/27.8W, and is currently stationary. It has become better organized since yesterday with some rotation evident on satellite imagery. One major model is predicting development around the early to middle part of next week, after it merges with an area of thunderstorms moving off the coast of Africa this morning. The disturbance is expected to remain generally stationary, or even drift eastward, until after it merges. If the system develops, a slow west or west-northwest motion is expected. It will still be well east of the Lesser Antilles by the end of next week. Most guidance indicates it will remain a disturbance until it weakens late next week. Development chances over the next 48 hours are near zero, with a 20 percent chance over the next 7 days. Disturbance 18 is along 81W and is moving west near 12 kts (14 mph). Development is not expected. For further information about our operations in the Americas, contact GAC at [email protected]. Source: Louisiana Maritime Association

If quoting any content from Hot Port News, please cite GAC Hot Port News as the source.

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