Depression over eastcentral Arabian Sea

The depression over eastcentral Arabian Sea remained practically stationary over the same region during the past 03 hrs and lay centred at 1130 hrs IST of today, the 24th October, 2019 near latitude 15.4°N and longitude 70.4°E, about 360 km west-southwest of Ratnagiri (Maharashtra), 490 km southwest of Mumbai (Maharashtra) and 1750 km east-southeast of Salalah (Oman).

It is very likely to intensify further into a deep depression during next 12 hours and into a cyclonic storm during subsequent 12 hours. It is very likely to move east-northeastwards till 25th October evening. Then it is very likely to re-curve and move nearly west-northwestwards towards south Oman and adjoining Yemen coast with gradual intensification during subsequent 72 hours.

Forecast track and intensity are as follows:

Date/Time (IST): 24.10.19/1130

Position (Lat. 0N/ long. 0E): 15.4/70.4

Maximum sustained surface wind speed (Kmph): 45-55 gusting to 65

Category of cyclonic disturbance: Depression

Date/Time (IST): 24.10.19/2330

Position (Lat. 0N/ long. 0E): 15.5/70.8

Maximum sustained surface wind speed (Kmph): 55-65 gusting to 75

Category of cyclonic disturbance: Deep Depression

Date/Time (IST): 25.10.19/1130

Position (Lat. 0N/ long. 0E): 15.7/71.1

Maximum sustained surface wind speed (Kmph): 70-80 gusting to 90

Category of cyclonic disturbance: Cyclonic Storm

Date/Time (IST): 25.10.19/2330

Position (Lat. 0N/ long. 0E): 15.9/71.0

Maximum sustained surface wind speed (Kmph): 90-100 gusting to 110

Category of cyclonic disturbance: Severe Cyclonic Storm

Date/Time (IST): 26.10.19/1130

Position (Lat. 0N/ long. 0E): 16.0/70.1

Maximum sustained surface wind speed (Kmph): 110-120 gusting to 135

Category of cyclonic disturbance: Severe Cyclonic Storm

Date/Time (IST): 26.10.19/2330

Position (Lat. 0N/ long. 0E): 16.2/68.2

Maximum sustained surface wind speed (Kmph): 120-130 gusting to 145

Category of cyclonic disturbance: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm

Date/Time (IST): 27.10.19/1130

Position (Lat. 0N/ long. 0E): 16.4/66.0

Maximum sustained surface wind speed (Kmph): 130-140 gusting to 155

Category of cyclonic disturbance: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm

Warnings:

(i) Rainfall

• Light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places & extremely heavy falls at isolated places is very likely over coastal districts of Karnataka, Goa & south Konkan and isolated heavy rainfall over north Konkan during next 24 hours. Light to moderate rainfall at many places with heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places is very likely over coastal districts of Konkan & Goa during subsequent 24 hours and reduction in rainfall thereafter.

(ii) Wind warning

• Squally wind speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph very likely to prevail over eastcentral Arabian Sea and along & off south Maharashtra, Goa & north Karnataka coasts and 40 – 50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph along & off south Karnataka coast , Lakshadweep area and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea during next 24 hours. Strong wind speed reaching 30-40 kmph gusting to 50 kmph very likely to prevail along & off north Maharashtra coast during next 48 hours.
• It is very likely to increase becoming gale force winds, speed reaching 60-70 kmph gusting to 80 kmph over eastcentral Arabian Sea and along & off south Maharashtra – Goa coasts, 50- 60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph along & off north Maharashtra coast and 40 – 50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph over eastcentral and adjoining northeast Arabian Sea off south Gujarat coast during the subsequent 24 hours.

(III) Sea condition

• The sea condition is very likely to be rough to very rough over eastcentral Arabian Sea and along & off south Maharashtra, Goa & north Karnataka coasts during next 24 hours. It is also very likely to be rough to very rough over eastcentral and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea and Lakshadweep area during next 24 hours. It is likely to become very rough to high over east central Arabian Sea and along & off south Maharashtra, Goa & north Karnataka coasts and rough to very rough over east central Arabian Sea along & off north Maharashtra coast and over eastcentral and adjoining northeast Arabian Sea off south Gujarat coast on 25th October.

(iv) Fishermen Warning

• The fishermen are advised not to venture into eastcentral Arabian Sea & along & off Maharashtra – Goa – Karnataka coasts during next 48 hours and along and off south Gujarat coast & adjoining northeast Arabian on 25th October.
• Fishermen out in the Deep Sea are advised to return to the coast by today evening.

Source: India Meteorological Department Earth System Science Organisation (Ministry of Earth Sciences) Bulletin No. 02 (ARB/03/2019)

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