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A Hurricane Warning is in effect for: Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa; Bonita Beach to the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay; and Dry Tortugas…
…A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for: Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas; Lower Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge westward to Key West; Flamingo to Bonita Beach; Suwannee River to the Anclote River; Volusia/Brevard County Line south to Jupiter Inlet; and Lake Okeechobee…
At 500am EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ian was located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 83.7 West. Ian is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today.
A turn toward the north-northeast with a reduction in forward speed is forecast tonight and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ian is expected to move over western Cuba during the next few hours. Ian will then emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico later this morning, pass west of the Florida Keys later today, and approach the west coast of Florida within the hurricane warning area on Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Ian is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected while Ian moves over Cuba. Strengthening is expected later this morning after Ian emerges over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
Ian is forecast to approach the west coast of Florida as a major hurricane.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)…
…The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide:
* Anclote River to Middle of Longboat Key, FL including Tampa Bay 5-10 ft
* Suwannee River to Anclote River 5-8 ft
* Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL 5-8 ft
* Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL including Charlotte Harbor 4-7 ft
* Bonita Beach, FL to East Cape Sable, FL 3-5 ft
* Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Altamaha Sound including St. Johns River 2-4 ft
* East Cape Sable, FL to Card Sound Bridge, FL including Florida Bay 2-4 ft
* Aucilla River to Suwannee River 2-4 ft
* Florida Keys including the Dry Tortugas 2-4 ft
* Indian Pass, FL to Aucilla River 1-3 ft
…Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area in Cuba through this morning. Destructive winds are expected where the core of Ian moves across western Cuba. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area in Cuba today.
Hurricane conditions are expected along the west coast of Florida within the Hurricane Warning area on Wednesday morning, with tropical storm conditions possibly beginning by late today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the southwest coast of the Florida peninsula by this evening, and along the west coast north of the Tampa Bay area and along portions of the east coast of Florida on Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area beginning on Wednesday, and tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area on Wednesday into early Thursday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the lower and middle Florida Keys beginning later today…
…Swells generated by Ian are affecting the western Caribbean, and will begin to affect the Florida Keys today, and will spread northward throughout the eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions…
(For information about operations in the Americas, contact the GAC Houston Hub Agency Center at [email protected])
Source: National Hurricane Center Miami FL Hurricane Ian Advisory No.17 issued at 500am EDT on 27 September 2022